Leaders overestimate AI enthusiasm. Measure the barrier, not the mood

Your leadership team probably thinks staff are more excited about AI than they are. The research behind that gap is real. The conclusion most organizations draw from it is the part to test first: that the cure is more enthusiasm.

The short answer: BCG's 2025 research says leaders overestimate employees' enthusiasm for AI by more than two times. The gap deserves attention. But enthusiasm is only one of four things that stop people from using a new tool well, and BCG's own 2026 figures point at the other three.

What the 2025 article says

BCG's article "Leaders Assume Employees Are Excited About AI. They're Wrong." makes three claims that matter here:

• Leaders overestimate employees' enthusiasm for AI by more than two times.
• 75% of executives believe their company is employee-centric, against 23% of individual contributors.
• Employee-centric organizations are seven times more likely to succeed with AI.

The article recommends listening to employees and building solutions with them. That is sensible. The figures need more care than the headline gives them.

Three things the numbers do not say

First, "more than two times" needs a zero. A ratio only means something on a scale with a true zero. If leaders' guess and the staff answer are both points on an agreement scale that starts at 1, then, as an illustration and not BCG's data, a 4 against a 2 is a ratio of two, and the same gap on a scale that starts elsewhere is a different ratio. The page does not give the question, the scale, the sample or the method. Without them, the ratio cannot be read.

Second, the "employee-centric" label has the same problem. It is a self-rating, and the two groups disagree about it by 52 points: 75% of executives against 23% of individual contributors. The seven-times figure compares organizations sorted by that label. If the sorting is unreliable, so is the comparison. "Seven times more likely" is also an association. It does not show that listening causes success, and the page does not define "succeed with AI".

Third, the remedy is a method, not a measurement. "Listen and co-create" tells you what kind of conversation to have. It does not tell you which barrier to fix first.

Enthusiasm is one of four barriers

Our four-barrier model sorts the reasons people give for not acting into four: I don't know, I don't like, I don't want, and I can't. Applied to a new AI tool:

• I don't know. The person cannot say in one sentence what the tool is for, or whether they are allowed to use it on their work.
• I don't like. Using it does not feel worth the effort for the tasks they actually have.
• I don't want. They do not see why their work should change, or they fear what the change means for them.
• I can't. They lack access, time, training or a safe place to try.

Enthusiasm measures "I don't like", and only weakly. A campaign to raise enthusiasm cannot fix "I don't know" or "I can't". It is still a tempting response, because a flat mood is easy to see in meetings.

What BCG's own 2026 numbers say

BCG's June 2026 report, AI at Work 2026: Strategy Matters More Than Tools, surveyed 11,749 workers. Its "frontline" group means white-collar staff without managerial responsibility, not shift workers. These are the figures for that group:

• 33% say leadership communicates clearly about AI.
• 28% see strong alignment between what leaders say and what the organization actually does.
• 74% are now regular AI users, up 23 percentage points on the year before.
• BCG's report says 66% still receive limited or no guidance on what to do with the time they save with AI.

Read together, most of this group already use the tool. That makes "I don't like" a poor explanation for the gap. What shows up is clarity (I don't know), belief in leaders' words (I don't want, when the message is not trusted), and guidance on use (I can't). BCG's own remedy, a clearer roadmap and more investment in people, points the same way.

A caution: BCG sells the work that addresses these gaps. Read its figures with that in mind, and check them against your own staff.

Why enthusiasm is the easy answer

A morale campaign is visible, quick and easy to approve. Clarity and guidance need someone to own them, and that work is slower. Leaders also tend to read a flat mood as a motivation problem, because they feel the mood in the room. But a person who does not know what the tool is for stays quiet, and a quiet team looks like a cold one. Often the silence is the barrier, not the feeling.

Permit the null

If your staff can say in one sentence what the tool is for, can get access and time in a working day, and used it on real work last week, then enthusiasm may well be the gap, and a morale campaign may be the right call. Measure before you decide.

What to measure this month

Take a sample across office and white-collar staff, and frontline staff too, using definitions you state in writing. Ask four questions, one per barrier:

1. I don't know: name one task the tool is for, in one sentence. 2. I don't like: would you use it for a task you choose this week? 3. I don't want: in your own words, will using it make your job better or worse? 4. I can't: do you have access, time and a training slot in the next two weeks?

Also ask whether they have used the tool on real work in the last seven days. Then ask leaders the same questions about their staff. The finding is the gap for each barrier, not the gap in enthusiasm. Where leaders' estimates are most wrong, you have the first thing to fix.

If the change itself is announced badly, the message barrier check scores why messages go unread and what would move them.

Frequently asked questions

Is it true that leaders overestimate employees' enthusiasm for AI?

BCG's 2025 article says leaders overestimate it by more than two times. The page we read does not give the sample, the question or the scale, so treat the ratio as BCG's finding, not a universal fact.

Should we run an enthusiasm campaign?

Only after you have measured the four barriers. If the gap is in clarity, access or guidance, enthusiasm will not move the number.

What does the 2026 BCG survey say about clarity?

A third of white-collar staff without managerial responsibility say leadership communicates clearly about AI, and 28% see strong alignment between leaders' words and the company's practice.

What this article does not settle

We worked from BCG's published 2025 article and its June 2026 report. We did not see the full method of the 2025 article. The reading of which barrier is in play is our interpretation of BCG's figures, not a finding from a survey we ran.

Epistemic status: built from BCG's published figures. The barrier reading is ours.

References

• BCG (2025), "Leaders Assume Employees Are Excited About AI. They're Wrong." bcg.com
• BCG (June 2026), AI at Work 2026: Strategy Matters More Than Tools, fourth edition, based on 11,749 workers. web-assets.bcg.com